COP30: The Global North's Disaster Imperative for Real Climate Action
As COP30 unfolds in Brazil, the global fossil fuel lobby is in full swing, working tirelessly to safeguard its industries. Coal, oil, and gas giants are once again aligning with producer states, a pattern that emerges prominently at the annual climate summit. The stakes are high, with more than 5,000 fossil fuel lobbyists granted access to UN climate talks over the past four years, advocating for market-oriented solutions like carbon capture and storage, which, despite their minimal impact, are crucial for preventing climate breakdown over the necessary timescales.
This lobbying effort is a continuation of decades-long, more direct actions by major oil companies, notably Exxon, based in Texas. Exxon has been particularly focused on influencing governmental and public attitudes towards climate change in the Global South. A recent leak of hundreds of documents revealed Exxon's funding of the Atlas Network, a right-wing climate-denialist think tank, aiming to make the Global South less inclined to support UN-led global climate treaties.
The Atlas Network, founded 44 years ago as the Atlas Economic Research Foundation, is a US-based non-governmental organization coordinating and supporting over 580 think tanks in over a hundred countries. Rooted in neoliberal economic ideology, the network has a strong track record of promoting free-market solutions and opposing what it sees as the threat to the world economy posed by efforts to reverse climate change, which it considers a non-problem.
However, the case for climate action is becoming increasingly compelling from an environmental perspective, fueled by the impact of extreme weather events. Last month's Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica serves as an example, but the recent experience in the Philippines may be more indicative of what's to come, despite receiving less attention in Western legacy media.
Typhoon Uwan, which struck the Philippines towards the end of the 2025 Pacific typhoon season, was notable for its broad trail across the northern Philippines, resulting in at least ten deaths and 1.4 million displacements. Even more concerning, it occurred just days after Typhoon Kalmaegi, which hit the central provinces of the Philippines on November 4, killing at least 232 people before moving to Vietnam, where more lives were lost and damage was inflicted.
These frequent deadly storms, whether in the Caribbean or Southeast Asia, may heighten the sense of urgency at COP30 in Belém, yet intense political opposition to climate action persists. This is evident in the actions of leaders like Donald Trump in the US, but similar skepticism is evident among other right-wing political leaders worldwide. Their influence is leading many on the left to dilute climate policies to attract votes and private investors.
Despite this, the necessary radical decarbonization of the world economy to prevent climate breakdown is becoming more feasible. Technological advancements are driving down the cost of solar-PV panels, wind turbines, and energy storage. While neoliberalism may persist in its approach, its high costs will soon render it unaffordable.
China, the world's largest economy and greenhouse gas emitter, is undergoing rapid change. Around two decades ago, Chinese climate scientists and policymakers recognized their country's inability to handle impending climate breakdown and subsequent economic collapse. As a result, the autocratic quasi-capitalist state has embraced a greener economy, potentially leveling off and even reducing its carbon emissions years ahead of expectations.
This shift is reflected in global trends. The International Energy Agency's annual report suggests that more renewable energy projects will be available in the next five years than over the past 40 years. The agency believes the transition away from fossil fuels is 'inevitable'.
However, the question remains: will this transition occur fast enough to mitigate local and regional climate catastrophes? Probably not, until extreme weather events start hitting the Global North with regularity and severity that makes them impossible to ignore. While 237 people died in Valencia last year due to floodwaters, their deaths had minimal impact outside Spain.
Severe catastrophes are already occurring in the Global South, as evidenced by the Derna disaster, which killed between 11,000 and 24,000 people in September 2023. A massive rainstorm in the mountains southwest of the Libyan coastal city of Derna caused a surge of floodwater, destroying two dams and engulfing entire neighborhoods. The lack of meaningful change following these deaths exposes a harsh reality: the strength and persistence of the climate-denying lobby mean that leaders in the Global North, responsible for the majority of emissions, are unlikely to take serious action until major northern cities face similar catastrophes. But how many more lives in the Global South will have to be lost before then?
