Nine kickers scored in double digits last week, led by journeyman Zane Gonzalez, who made four field goal attempts and one extra point to finish with 17 fantasy points. Considering only 2% of teams in Yahoo even rostered Gonzalez, chances are not many people benefitted from that breakout game.
In fact, of the nine kickers who finished with double figures, only two players are rostered in more than 60% of fantasy leagues on Yahoo. Tyler Bass of the Bills snuck in with 10, and Nick Folk, someone I have been touting for weeks, scored 15 fantasy points for the Patriots.
It was a rough week for Derrick Henry managers, anyone who picked this week as the week for the Lions to finally win a game, and heavily-rostered kickers like Ryan Succop, Matt Prater, and Greg Zuerlein.
While all of those kickers are likely to bounce back and will continue to be top-12 options the rest of the season, this past week is a perfect example of why streaming kickers based on matchups can be a wise move.
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Week 8 Stud Performances from widely available kickers
Jake Elliott (PHI)@ Detroit: 8% roster percentage on Yahoo
Elliott made three field goals and five extra points in Philadelphia’s lopsided win on the road over the hapless Lions. It was an impressive performance, but not one that I would chase on the waiver wire.
It was only the second game of over ten fantasy points for the veteran kicker, who managed just 12 total points in his previous three games combined. His output was more of an anomaly based on a lopsided game and not something that I think will continue.
Joey Slye (SF)@ Chicago: 11% roster percentage on Yahoo
It’s not very often that we have a player show up on the stud performance list who missed a field goal and an extra point. But when you get five field goal tries, including a 50-yard attempt, you can more than make up for a couple of misses.
Like Elliott, I am not comfortable recommending Slye as someone to target on waiver wires this week. Although he does have two games with 14 fantasy points, he also has a ton of duds in between, and the 49ers have been fairly strong in the red zone this season, and their offense ranks out of the top 15 in yards per game.
Week 8 Dud Performances from widely-rostered kickers
Matt Prater (ARZ)vs. Green Bay: 89% roster percentage on Yahoo
With ten fantasy points combined in his last two weeks and just three against the Packers, Matt Prater has not been much help for fantasy managers as of late. The Cardinals have been more efficient in the red zone as of late, and the success of the Cardinals running game led by James Conner and Chase Edmunds has started to eat into opportunities for Prater. I do think he will finish as a top-10 kicker, but he is starting to fall in my rankings.
Week 8 Kicker Rankings
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker's offense does in the red zone. For example, the Bills rank 19th in red zone efficiency; therefore, Tyler Bass has an RZ EFF score of 13. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player's opponent's red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines, and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker's team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play Week 9.
Michael Badgley (IND)vs. NY Jets 4% roster percentage on Yahoo
The Jets have given up the third-most points to opposing kickers this season, and Badgley has a K Score of 33 that projects a solid game this week. The game is played indoors, and the two teams are playing on a short week, which could lead to some sloppy offensive play. Look for Badgley to get at least seven fantasy points with a ceiling around 12.
Randy Bullock (TEN)@ LA Rams 18% roster percentage on Yahoo
Bullock now has three games in a row of at least ten fantasy points, including a top-five finish last week. The loss of Derrick Henry will hurt the team's overall efficiency on offense, but it could also lead to more inefficiency in the red zone. This game could go sideways and leave Bullock with a negative game script, but I think he still gives a floor of around five with a ceiling around ten.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Chase McLaughlin (CLE)vs. Pittsburgh 26% roster percentage on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: 17
- My Rank: 11
- Week 8 Finish: 23
I went back to the well with McLaughlin, and I should have avoided him like the plague. This game had a low-scoring contest written all over it, and the game script turned out as expected. Unfortunately, the Browns were on the wrong side of the score, and the wind in Cleveland proved to be stronger than anticipated. I am staying away from McLaughlin indefinitely.
Michael Badgley (IND)vs. Tennessee 12% roster percentage on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: 23
- My Rank: 12
- Week 8 Finish: T12
Badgley gave fantasy managers an excellent floor of seven fantasy points with four extra points and a field goal. Based on his K Score of 22, I anticipated at least ten fantasy points by Badgley, but Carson Wentz and the Colts were more successful converting drives into touchdowns than I predicted. A top-12 finish is still solid, but I thought we would have had more from Badgley.
Waiver Wired
Top Add
Nick Folk (NE)@ Chargers 61% roster percentage on Yahoo
I will continue to leave Folk up here as my waiver wire addition until he gets over 80% roster rate. It is astounding to me that the kicker with the most fantasy points in the league continues to be available in nearly 40% of leagues. Unless you have Tyler Bass, Justin Tucker, or Greg Zuerlein, I would add Folk.
Other players to consider
Randy Bullock (TEN) @ LA Rams 18% roster percentage on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out hisarchiveor follow him@FFtoday_Andy.
